AGP Executive Report

Fiscal Reform Watch: Prime Minister Vasile Tofan’s 2027 fiscal policy is out for public consultation, aiming to tax labour less, spur investment, raise taxes on “vices,” and rebalance consumption taxes; the plan includes a 35% jump in the personal income tax exemption from 29,700 to 40,000 lei (about 800 million lei kept by workers), plus a moderate VAT increase up to 12% for food outside the social basket. Energy Crunch: With Danube levels low and demand up in the heatwave, Energocom warns of an electricity deficit during 18:00–21:00 and urges peak-hour savings; President Maia Sandu echoes that emergency purchases can be far pricier, raising the risk of outages and tariff pressure. Housing & Costs: Tofan says the government will try to moderate real estate price growth, pointing to high construction materials, labour costs, and land bureaucracy as key drivers. Trade & Transport: Ukrzaliznytsia is seeking a 50% cut in transit tariffs for Ukrainian goods moving through Moldova, while negotiations hinge on freight volumes and locomotive needs. Business Services Digitization: Moldova will expand online business registration and archiving tools, including free name checks and faster registry data access. EU & Regional Ties: Slovakia backs Moldova’s EU accession with a €6m project, and Tofan’s call with Bulgaria focused on trade, investment, and energy security via the Vertical Gas Corridor. Travel: Wizz Air adds three new Chisinau routes (London, Alicante, Frankfurt) and boosts Bucharest frequencies.

Tax Reform Push: Prime Minister Vasile Tofan outlined 2027 fiscal changes, including a higher personal income tax exemption from 29,700 to 40,000 lei (protecting the first 40,000 lei of earnings), plus a moderate VAT rise up to 12% for non-social-basket food—while keeping reduced VAT for essentials like bread, milk, fruits and vegetables. Banking & Finance: The government also plans to raise profit tax on commercial banks (and other financial institutions), arguing high 2025 bank profits justify a temporary hit despite potential lending slowdown. Energy & Water Resilience: President Maia Sandu warned drought and low Danube/Dniester flows could worsen electricity and water shortages, urging households to cut consumption during peak hours. Business & Travel: Wizz Air expands Chisinau routes with new direct flights to London Gatwick, Alicante and Frankfurt-Hahn, and more weekly flights to Bucharest. Digital Economy: The e-Governance Agency and the PM set priorities to make digital services more accessible, targeting a 100% digital state by 2030. Cross-border Trade Rules: Moldova moves ahead with partial foreign-exchange liberalization, easing some reporting and authorization steps for certain cross-border transactions. Local Economy & Investment Climate: Moldcell bought a 67% stake in OCN Prime Capital to expand digital financial services, while the government simplified free economic zone procedures for new residents. Reintegration Watch: Moldova reiterated it does not recognize Transnistria privatizations and warned buyers could lose investments.

Energy & Water Crisis: Moldova is bracing for tighter electricity supply as drought and low Danube/Dniester flows bite. The Ministry of Energy warned of a peak-hour commercial deficit tonight (18:00–21:00) and urged voluntary consumption cuts; Prime Minister Vasile Tofan said last evening’s shortfall forced purchases on the exchange at 2–3x higher prices. New Power Capacity: The government approved a 30 MW photovoltaic plant near Vadul lui Vodă, with storage planned for next year, aiming to reduce import dependence. Regional Grid Links: Romania’s Nuclearelectrica has started buying Ukrainian electricity via Energocom to cover deficits after Cernavodă unit shutdown. Local Governance Reform: Town halls that started voluntary amalgamation must finalize procedures in August; the state will provide incentives totaling 6.5 billion lei for completed mergers. EU-leaning Trade/Investment Push: Moldova–US talks in Chisinau focused on the Strășeni–Gutinaș energy interconnection, export access to the US, and attracting new investment projects. Legal/Compliance Watch: Moldova says it does not recognize Transnistrian privatization acts done outside its legal framework, warning buyers of potential legal and financial consequences. Business & Crime: A telephone-fraud suspect was arrested in Căușeni and accused of recruiting couriers and laundering proceeds via cryptocurrency.

Energy Crunch: Moldova may face electricity blackouts tonight (21:00–23:00) with an estimated 130 MWh deficit as heatwaves push demand up and low Danube levels cut regional generation; Energy Minister Dorin Junghietu urges households to reduce consumption. Tax & Business Climate: Prime Minister Vasile Tofan will present a revised tax reform concept on Aug 6, aiming to tax labor less, encourage investment, and raise excise on tobacco, alcohol and gambling, after the first draft drew public and business backlash. Local Governance & Spending: Five Drochia localities will merge into one town hall, backed by 28.1 million lei in incentives; more broadly, voluntary amalgamation is expanding nationwide with billions in support. Security & Risk Management: The government approved a national methodology to unify how authorities identify and manage national security risks, creating one coordinated framework. Financial Inclusion: Foreigners legally residing in Moldova will get easier access to social and financial inclusion, including membership in savings and loan associations. Politics & Courts: Moldova’s Court of Appeal restricted the “Heart of Moldova” party for 12 months over financing suspicions. Trade & Energy Links: Romania’s Nuclearelectrica started buying electricity from Ukraine via Energocom to cover deficits after Cernavodă’s unit shutdown, underscoring Moldova’s reliance on imports. EU-Accession Economy: Parliament adopted 52 acts in July, including measures aligned with EU accession priorities.

Energy Crunch Tonight: Moldova’s Energy Ministry warns of a 130 MWh electricity deficit between 21:00 and 23:00 due to a heatwave and low Danube levels cutting regional generation, with possible disconnections if market purchases fall short. Water & Utilities Costs: Chisinau residents face higher water and sewerage tariffs after ANRE approved new rates for Apa-Canal. Tax & Compliance Push: The State Tax Service will run unannounced fiscal inspections across August, targeting online commerce, HoReCa, taxi services, and other higher-risk sectors. Excise Tax Overhaul: Moldova’s Finance Ministry finalizes updated excise rules aligned with EU practice, aiming to simplify administration after EU accession. Energy Investment Finance: Moldova plans a new credit guarantee instrument to help fund battery energy storage systems. Trade & Business Logistics: DP World pilots a rail-to-road corridor for finished vehicles from Belgium to Aiud, Romania, with onward delivery to Chisinau. Postal Expansion: Nova Post opened 266 new service locations across Europe since the start of 2026, with the biggest growth in Moldova. Health Supply Monitoring: Moldova will create a national information system to track medicine stocks and prevent shortages. Politics With Economic Fallout: Courts restrict the “Heart of Moldova” party for 12 months, while the government investigates how visas were issued for a Taliban-linked Afghanistan agriculture delegation.

Energy & Water Crisis Response: Moldova’s National Crisis Management Commission approved new limits on electricity exports and non-essential water use as Dniester levels stay critically low, including peak-hour export caps (18:00–22:00) and reduced public/commercial lighting, while Energocom is tasked with securing alternative power supplies from Romania and Ukraine. Chisinau Utilities Costs: ANRE approved higher water and sewerage tariffs for Apa-Canal Chisinau, lifting drinking water from 12.99 to 14.03 lei/m³ and raising sewage/wastewater tariffs. Tax Enforcement: The State Tax Service will run surprise fiscal inspections across August, targeting online commerce, digital services, retail, transport (including taxis), HoReCa, market trade, and tobacco/beer sales, with checks on receipts, declared income, and proof of goods’ legal origin. Healthcare Supply Chain: Moldova will create a national Information System to monitor medicine stocks across manufacturers, importers, wholesalers, pharmacies, and medical institutions, aiming to prevent shortages with centralized reporting and alerts. Local Government Reform Funding: Government plans a 6.5 billion lei modernization package for settlements undergoing voluntary unification, while President Maia Sandu urges remaining mayoralties to complete procedures by end of August. Workforce & Skills: Moldova’s education ministry launches mentor recruitment for dual vocational training, offering lump-sum payments up to 375,000 lei, and businesses are already lining up to host trainees. Business & Trade Signals: Moldova’s ambassador in Beijing pushed to speed up procedures for more agricultural exports to China (including bee honey) and called for customs cooperation to ease trade. EU Integration & Governance: Parliament speaker Igor Grosu says Moldova aims to improve its European Commission assessment, with negotiations on key clusters already opened.

Local Government Reform: Moldova’s administrative-territorial overhaul is moving fast: all mayoralties under 3,000 residents must merge via voluntary or government-led normative amalgamation, with Parliament Speaker Igor Grosu saying the reform must be finished by next autumn ahead of 2027 local elections. Energy & Water Security: The National Crisis Management Commission approved new energy-saving and water-protection steps as Dniester levels stay critical, including limiting electricity exports during peak hours and cutting public lighting, while Energocom is tasked with securing alternative supplies. Cross-border Power Trade: Romania’s Nuclearelectrica will buy electricity from Ukraine via Moldova’s Energocom to offset the Cernavodă Unit 1 shutdown and stabilize the regional market. EU Accession Progress: Igor Grosu said Moldova is pushing for an even stronger European Commission assessment, with key negotiation clusters “Fundamental Values” and “External Relations” already opened. Local Amalgamation Push: President Maia Sandu says over 85% of mayoralties have started voluntary amalgamation and urges the rest to complete procedures by end of August or face normative amalgamation. Business & Finance: Armeconombank launched a new Visa Signature Business card for corporate clients, while Moldova’s regulator reports nonbank lending risks remain moderately low. Agriculture Trade Tensions: Farmers’ groups are calling to reintroduce import licensing for Ukrainian cereals and oilseeds, warning cheap imports could hit Moldova’s grain market and exports.

Energy & Water Security: Energocom urged Moldovans to cut electricity use during peak hours (6pm–11pm) as Romania’s drought-driven energy alert raises regional price risk; Energocom says Moldova’s demand is covered but extra purchases may be needed. Hydrology Coordination: Moldova and Ukraine agreed on direct, permanent communication to monitor the Dniester flow and manage emergency impacts. Municipal Water Preparedness: The government is delivering four more motor pumps to Chisinau City Hall and Apă Canal to bolster water intake capacity ahead of potential Dniester-related crises. Power Imports: Nuclearelectrica will buy electricity from Ukraine via Energocom to cover deficits after Cernavoda NPP Unit 1 shutdown. Agriculture & Trade Pressure: Farmers’ Force demands reintroducing licensing for Ukrainian cereal and oilseed imports, warning cheap inflows could crash grain prices and threaten Moldova’s export position. Governance & Reform: Local government reform is moving toward voluntary territorial mergers, with “normative amalgamation” for holdouts. Business & Finance: Parliament speaker Igor Grosu backs cost-cutting in the gas tariff by potentially merging MoldovaGaz’s 12 territorial companies. Education & EU-linked Funding: Four Chisinau kindergartens will be rehabilitated with World Bank support (~2.3m lei each). EU/Capital Markets Push: PM Vasile Tofan reiterated Moldova’s aim to attract investment and support more company listings in Romania. Media Regulation: Liliana Vițu resigned as president of Moldova’s Audiovisual Council.

Energy & Prices: Parliament Speaker Igor Grosu says the state will step in if natural gas tariffs rise, focusing on transport and administrative costs and pushing to merge parts of the MoldovaGaz system to cut overhead. Electricity Supply: Energocom urges households to reduce use during 18:00–23:00 as Romania’s energy alert and low Danube flows could trigger regional price swings; Moldova’s demand is currently covered, but peak-hour purchases may cost more. Water Security: Moldova and Ukraine will keep direct, permanent coordination to manage the Dniester flow amid critically low reservoir levels, while Chisinau’s water intake infrastructure is under scrutiny. EU-aligned Finance Rules: Moldova is harmonizing bank recovery and resolution legislation with EU standards, requiring recovery plans and clearer crisis powers for regulators. Jobs & Skills: A new “Graduate Employment Monitoring” module will track graduates for three years to measure employment outcomes and match education to actual occupations. Business & Investment: Moldova’s push for new company listings in Romania continues, with officials pointing to dual listings as a way to attract capital. Regional Trade: Turkey and Moldova discussed expanding free-trade and defense/tech cooperation as bilateral trade tops $1B. Fraud Crackdown: U.S. and Moldovan authorities met to target fraudulent call centers and online scams, including visa restrictions for cybercrime suspects. Social Payments: CNAS started August pension and benefits funding (73 million lei) with payments scheduled across early August.

Gas Tariffs & State Oversight: Parliament Speaker Igor Grosu says MoldovaGaz’s 12 territorial enterprises could be merged to cut administrative costs in the natural gas tariff, criticizing salaries of 360,000 lei and 90,000 lei advisor payments. Energy Alert & Power Prices: Energocom urges households to cut electricity use between 18:00-23:00 during Romania’s 30-day state of alert, warning peak-hour procurement on regional markets could raise costs. Water Security for Business & Daily Life: Environment Minister Gheorghe Hajder says Moldova and Ukraine will keep direct, permanent coordination on Dniester flow after critically low reservoir levels, with focus on Chisinau’s intake infrastructure. EU-Linked Growth Outlook: Eurozone GDP growth is stronger than expected (0.4% in Q2), while Moldova’s forecast remains modest (0.7% quarterly; ~2.5% annual), with managers expecting stable conditions and moderate price pressure. Education-to-Jobs Tracking: The Education Ministry plans a “Graduate Employment Monitoring” module in SIMÎS to track graduates for three years and match studies to real occupations. Finance & Payments: Moldova marks two years of SEPA-linked instant payments growth, with over 31 million transactions worth about 28.5 billion lei since launch. EU Capital Markets Push: PM Vasile Tofan backs simpler rules and more listings, including dual listings in Romania’s Bucharest Stock Exchange. Crime & Fraud Risks: U.S. and Moldovan law enforcement coordinate against fraudulent call centers targeting both Moldovan residents and Americans. Justice Watch: Ilan Șor faces a new bank fraud case tied to alleged $100 million embezzlement from Banca de Economii.

Energy & Water Security: Moldova and Ukraine agreed on permanent, direct communication to monitor the Dniester River after low flows, with extra focus on the Chisinau intake station to keep water supply safe. Electricity Costs: Energocom urged consumers to cut power use between 18:00-23:00 during Romania’s 30-day energy alert, warning peak-hour purchases may get pricier. Fuel Supply Watch: Moldova reported improving petrol and diesel stock coverage after imports, as authorities keep a state of alert to prevent shortages. Business & Finance Rules: Moldova is moving to regulate investment funds via a new law (effective June 1, 2027), setting uniform rules for fund creation, management, custody, and investor disclosure. Capital Markets Push: Prime Minister Vasile Tofan backed new company listings in Romania, including dual listings, to help Moldovan firms access wider capital. EU-aligned Legal Reform: Parliament advanced an anti-SLAPP package to protect against abusive lawsuits, with early dismissal and cost security requirements. Crime & Fraud Crackdown: U.S. and Moldovan law enforcement coordinated against fraudulent call centers targeting both Moldovans and Americans, with visa restrictions for cybercrime suspects. Education Costs: Prospective students faced application fees and set timelines for preliminary and final admissions results, with tuition varying widely by university and program.

Moldova–Bavaria Economic Push: President Maia Sandu and Bavaria’s Markus Söder agreed to set up a Moldova–Bavaria intergovernmental commission to boost investment, jobs, and business links, with Bavaria already taking a big share of Moldova’s exports. EU Accession Momentum: EU ambassador Iwona Piórko says Moldova is the fastest among candidate states in progress over the past year and expects all negotiation clusters to open after summer. Energy & Water Stress: Moldova extended energy and hydrological alert measures amid low Dniester levels and diesel concerns; fuel stocks are improving after imports, while the government urges smart electricity use. Payments Upgrade: The central bank marked two years of MIA Instant Payments growth—over 31 million transactions worth about 28.5 billion lei—highlighting wider adoption for business and public payments. Local Reform Funding: Voluntary municipal amalgamation is at 85% uptake; communities have until end-August to finish to keep access to extra state resources. Justice & Finance: Prosecutors moved Ilan Shor’s new $100m bank-fraud case to court, while anti-corruption work also fed convictions tied to electoral corruption and the Shor-linked Eurasia group was declared extremist. Defense & Trade: Moldova and Turkey deepened defense-industry and security-tech cooperation, while Moldova–Ukraine talks focused on Dniester water management and the Cosăuți–Yampil bridge to support trade flows.

Moldova–Ukraine Coordination: PM Vasile Tofan spoke by phone with Ukraine’s Serhii Koretskyi on Dniester water management, the Cosăuți–Yampil bridge and rail freight cooperation—aimed at easing cross-border bottlenecks. U.S. Energy Deal: Tofan met the U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Nick Pietrowicz, highlighting a $130m U.S. grant for the Strășeni–Gutina 400 kV power line to strengthen links to the European grid and attract investment. Public Payments: CNAS began funding August pensions and social benefits (73m lei total), with disbursement dates spread across early August and options via bank cards/EVO or post offices. EU Momentum: President Maia Sandu and Bavaria’s Markus Söder backed Moldova’s European path; a Moldova–Bavaria intergovernmental economic commission is set to support trade, jobs and investment. Energy Security & Markets: Moldova reported improving fuel stocks (petrol ~15 days, diesel 8–9) after imports; smart electricity meters are set to connect to new Italian-funded digital systems; and an auction selected wind projects up to 179 MW plus storage. Governance & Pay: Government reviewed “obscene salaries” across ~40,000 public staff and plans investigations, reporting and a public salary catalogue. Anti-Corruption: Prosecutors sent Ilan Șor to court in a new Banca de Economii fraud case alleging $100m embezzlement. Local Reform Deadline: Voluntary mayoralty amalgamation ends July 31; Sandu urges completion by end-August to keep access to extra state resources.

Moldova–Turkey Business & Security: Chisinau and Ankara are pushing deeper defense-industry cooperation, with talks in Turkey on defense technologies, trade, and investment as bilateral trade tops $1B. EU Accession Momentum: EU ambassador Iwona Piórko says Moldova is the fastest EU-accession mover among candidates this past year, with hopes that all negotiation clusters will be opened after summer. Energy & Gas Security: Parliament approved a law requiring the gas supplier for Transnistria to build reserves covering at least 15% of average annual consumption, phased in by Nov. 1. Local Governance Deadline: Voluntary mayoralty amalgamation must be initiated by July 31, or settlements move to normative amalgamation in August. State Firms Performance: Moldova’s state-owned enterprises posted 2025 sales of 68.5B lei and net profit of 3.1B lei, led by Moldovagaz and Chisinau International Airport. Romania Partnership: PM Vasile Tofan tells Romanian audiences Moldova is a partner for investment, not just a beneficiary, as infrastructure and energy ties expand. Crime & Regulation: Parliament tightened rules on online drug promotion/sales and expanded monitoring to prevent convicted people from evading sentences.

EU Integration & Jobs: Parliament adopted second-reading amendments aligning Moldova’s employment and unemployment insurance rules with EU standards, including new rights for frontier workers and a longer ability for jobseekers to keep benefits while searching across the EU/EEA/Schengen. Energy Security: Moldova moved to a 30-day energy and hydrological alert and approved rules requiring Transnistria’s gas supplier to build mandatory natural gas stocks covering at least 15% of average annual consumption, with phased creation and reporting. Bucharest Push for Investment: Prime Minister Vasile Tofan’s first official visit to Romania focused on turning the Prut relationship into “stone bridges” of capital and energy, with talks on infrastructure and supply coordination amid low Danube levels. Business Environment: Tofan met the Club of Bessarabian Businesspeople in Bucharest, promising fewer administrative bottlenecks and clearer public procurement rules. Agriculture Finance: Moldova ratified an EIB deal for a €150m preferential loan to modernize the agri-food sector under “Fruit Garden of Moldova II,” targeting SMEs and irrigation, processing and digitalization. SME Collateral System: Parliament ratified a $350,000 grant to implement a Register of Movable Collateral, improving access to financing for firms without real estate. Justice & Compliance: Parliament adopted tougher penalties for promoting illegal drugs via social media (up to 12 years) and expanded electronic monitoring to prevent convicted people from evading punishment. Corruption Case: Former Banca de Economii head Grigore Gacikevici was sentenced to 13 years for alleged bank fraud tied to about 3 billion lei in damage. Regional Voting Rules: Moldova advanced first-reading amendments to the Electoral Code for Gagauzia, including postal voting and a shift to proportional election of deputies. Culture Co-Production: Moldova ratified in first reading a Council of Europe convention enabling official recognition of cross-border audiovisual series co-productions.

Bucharest Business Push: Moldova’s PM Vasile Tofan begins his first foreign trip since taking office, meeting Romania’s President Nicușor Dan, interim PM Ilie Bolojan, and parliament leadership, with talks focused on economic cooperation, infrastructure, energy, security, and investment support. Energy Cost Watch: Moldova’s Energy Ministry urges voluntary electricity cuts during peak hours after Danube low water affects regional generation, warning prices could rise; separate reporting links the situation to potential higher costs if nuclear capacity is reduced in Romania. Gas Tariff Politics: PM Tofan says a gas tariff increase is “inevitable” due to higher cold-season purchase prices, while the government looks for ways to limit the impact and protect vulnerable households. Health Payments Go Digital: Moldova’s compulsory health insurance enrollment and premium payments are rising, with MPay becoming the main channel for paying contributions, while the CNAM reviews steps to tighten oversight and improve medical-services reporting systems. Anti-Corruption Finance: Moldova’s Anti-Corruption Center details allegations against former BEM chairman Grigore Gacicheivici over loan approvals and alleged money laundering abroad. Trade & Tech Diplomacy: Moldova and Türkiye discuss expanding trade and defense-technology cooperation and investment ties, while the PM also meets the Moldova IT Park Council to keep the digital sector competitive. Public Spending & Wages: The government prepares a new public-sector wage law draft for consultation next September, aiming to reduce pay discrepancies and boost priority sectors. Investor Climate: PM Tofan reiterates Moldova’s openness to investment beyond Europe, including China, and signals caution on proposals for extra bank taxation pending a draft reform. Regulatory Modernization: Parliament is set to ratify an electronic pledge registry, a move meant to simplify how businesses register security interests in movable property.